Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.