Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
